Artificial Intelligence Accounted for Nearly Half of Global Trade Growth
On October 8, the World Trade Organization (WTO) published its updated global trade forecast. Global trade is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, compared to the previously projected 1.9%. Artificial intelligence has emerged as the main driver of this growth, accounting for 47% of the total increase in global merchandise trade in the first half of the year.
Countries around the world are actively purchasing chips, servers, and data center equipment. U.S. technology companies alone could spend between $660 billion and $765 billion on AI development this year, representing a 77% increase compared to the previous year.
The scale of the technological boom is also reflected in international trade. Trade in AI-related goods increased by 16% in 2024, by 31% in 2025, and by as much as 67% in the first half of 2026. These goods now account for 14.8% of global merchandise trade. In other words, nearly one in every seven dollars of international merchandise trade is linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure.
However, only a limited number of economies are benefiting significantly from the AI boom. The ten largest participants account for 85% of global exports and 80% of imports of these goods. Just four East Asian economies generate more than half of global exports, while the United States remains the primary source of demand.
Asia has become the main engine of global trade growth, contributing 4 percentage points to the overall growth rate of 3.9%. Among the leading exporters, South Korea and Hong Kong stand out, having increased their exports by 48.2% and 44.4%, respectively, driven by strong demand for electronics and AI-related components.
However, such a high level of dependence on a single technological sector creates new risks for global trade. According to the WTO, a slowdown in investment in artificial intelligence could have a significant impact on global trade flows.
Thus, artificial intelligence is already transforming not only technology but also the global economy. While some countries are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in computing capacity, others are expanding equipment production and gaining new export opportunities. Artificial intelligence is becoming one of the key factors reshaping the structure of global trade.